IDC: Global smartphone shipments to fall 13% in 2026 amid memory chip crisis

The global smartphone market is forecast to decline by 13% in 2026, as a prolonged memory chip shortage weighs heavily on production and margins, according to analyst house IDC.

IDC predicts that shipments will total around 1.12 billion units this year, marking the lowest annual figure in more than a decade. The revised outlook represents a sharp downgrade from the firm’s November forecast of. 0.9% decline, issued before the full scale of the memory supply crunch became clear.

Francisco Jeronimo, IDC’s Vice President of Worldwide Client Devices, described the shortage as more than a temporary disruption.

“This is not a temporary squeeze,” he said, calling it a “tsunami-like shock” impacting the entire consumer electronics industry.

Android vendors, particularly those focused on lower-priced devices, are expected to face the most significant pressure. Rising component costs are likely to erode margins in the budget segment, while premium manufacturers are seen as better positioned to absorb higher input costs.

“Apple and Samsung are better positioned to navigate this crisis,” Jeronimo said. “As smaller and low-end-positioned Android vendors struggle with rising costs, Apple and Samsung could not only weather the storm but potentially expand market share as the competitive landscape tightens.”

Nabila Popal, Senior Research Director at IDC, said the impact would extend beyond short-term shipment declines.

“The memory crisis will cause more than a temporary decline; it marks a structural reset of the entire market, fundamentally reshaping long-term total addressable market, the vendor landscape and the product mix,” she said.

IDC expects consolidation among smaller manufacturers as volumes contract. Average selling prices are projected to rise 14% year-on-year to US$523 in 2026, reflecting the upward pressure on component costs.

Memory chipset prices are forecast to stabilise by mid-2027, but IDC cautioned they are unlikely to return to previous levels. As a result, smartphones priced below US$100 could become “permanently uneconomical”, according to Popal.

Regionally, emerging markets – where entry-level smartphones remain in higher demand – are expected to see the steepest shipment declines. The Middle East and Africa is forecast to contract by 20.6% year-on-year, while China and Asia-Pacific (excluding China and Japan) are projected to fall by 10.5% and 13.1% respectively.

Looking further ahead, IDC anticipates a modest 2% recovery in global shipments by mid-2027 as chipset prices stabilise, followed by a stronger rebound of 5.2% in 2028.

TalkTalk Business formally separates from parent business

Press Release

Business technology provider, TalkTalk Business, has formally completed its separation from TalkTalk Group as of the end of February, marking a significant milestone in its evolution as an independent managed network service provider.

Following the sale of TalkTalk Business Direct in 2023, TalkTalk Business maintained access to certain core TalkTalk Group systems while rapidly developing its own independent operating environment. That phased transition is now complete, with an established operational infrastructure, modernised system stack and comprehensive service delivery capabilities, cementing its position as a standalone business.

The separation provides full autonomy over strategy, investment and systems, creating the foundations for accelerated growth. With a simplified operating structure and system stack, TalkTalk Business is positioned to respond more quickly to market demand, expand its product portfolio and to continue its investment in customer service.

For customers, the change delivers clearer accountability, streamlined processes and access to an evolving suite of technology solutions. New operational frameworks and product developments are already in place to strengthen service delivery and support long-term digital transformation ambitions.

The milestone aligns closely with TalkTalk Business’s strategic repositioning, reflecting its evolution beyond connectivity into managed services. A recently refreshed brand identity underpins the company’s focus on enterprise and public sector customers, delivering managed and unmanaged services spanning connectivity, networking, cyber security, cloud, IOT and voice and collaboration.

TalkTalk Business continues to work with strategic technology partners including Cisco, Zoom and Mitel, ensuring all customers have the right technology solutions to adapt, grow and stay competitive.

Ruth Kennedy, CEO at TalkTalk Business, said: “This marks the beginning of the exciting next phase for TalkTalk Business. We are now operating as a fully independent organisation with the agility and focus needed to deliver our strategy at pace.

“Our evolution into a managed network service provider is central to our growth ambitions. By combining our connectivity heritage with broader technology expertise and strong strategic partnerships, we are building a business designed specifically to support customers with secure, end-to-end solutions. This separation gives us the clarity and momentum to drive that forward.”

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TIM tests quantum-safe connection between two data centres

Press Release

The distribution of quantum keys while maintaining commercial traffic has been successfully tested over a distance of 40 km in Milan

TIM has successfully completed the first test in Italy of quantum-safe communications between Data Centers on an operational network infrastructure, validating the use of quantum key distribution for data stream encryption in a real operating environment.

TIM’s initiative is part of a broader set of projects aimed at strengthening the country’s digital sovereignty and, in particular, the security of the entire network-data center-cloud ecosystem, with the aim of increasing resilience, operational continuity and the protection of sensitive data. In a context where the ability to protect strategic infrastructure and data with secure and manageable solutions is becoming a competitive factor for businesses and public administrations, the project confirms TIM’s role as an enabler of digital sovereignty and quantum technologies.

The test, carried out in collaboration with Cisco, verified the integration of the quantum component with existing network and security architectures. The signal dedicated to key distribution was co-propagated with traditional data traffic on the same pair of optical fibres, along a 40 km route crossing several TIM network nodes in the Milan urban area, connecting two of the Group’s main Data Centers. This deliberately complex configuration – with numerous junctions and intermediate components – demonstrated the robustness of the solution in real-world scenarios of interconnection between Data Centers, such as replication, backup and disaster recovery.

The project leveraged the expertise of TIM Enterprise ecosystem: Telsy and QTI for the encryption and quantum security component, and Noovle for the Data Center infrastructure.

The trial is part of TIM’s broader commitment to quantum communications at European level. TIM has successfully coordinated the three-year European QUantum ecOsystems (EQUO) project (2023–2025), funded by the European Commission as part of the Digital Europe Programme to support the development of the European Quantum Communication Infrastructure (EuroQCI). The main objectives of EQUO concern the development of quantum key distribution networks and services, according to control and management architectures consistent with emerging standards.

With these initiatives, TIM takes another step forward in bringing innovative, reliable solutions to the market that are geared towards protecting critical data, responding to the security needs of companies in increasingly complex and sensitive scenarios, as well as to the security regulations and directives of the competent authorities to ensure the cyber resilience of networks.

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TRAI punts on whether 5G slicing violates net neutrality rules

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has reportedly decided to take a wait-and-see approach on whether 5G network slicing would violate its regulations on net neutrality.

According to a report from ETTelecom on Thursday, Indian telcos have asked TRAI to revisit its net neutrality rules and make any necessary changes to allow network slicing, which they see as not only a key characteristic of 5G, but a potential generator of new revenues.

Network slicing enables 5G standalone operators to create premium dedicated fast lanes for customers willing to pay more, be it for mission-critical industrial use cases or bandwidth-intensive consumer apps like livestreaming and e-sports.

Critics say that network slicing is another form of differentiated quality of service that they claim goes against the principle of net neutrality, which guarantees open, non-discriminatory access to the internet.

Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel – both of which plan to leverage 5G’s network slicing capabilities – as well as 5G telecoms vendors like Ericsson, have told TRAI that network slicing should be allowed under its net neutrality rules as long as slicing services don’t degrade data speeds for lower-tier users or block users from accessing specific content, the report said.

A TRAI advisor at a panel discussion on Wednesday said the regulator intends to see how network slicing services play out in practice before deciding if they comply with its net neutrality policy, the report said.

That potentially puts telcos in a bind, as it means they would have to launch 5G slicing services with the risk that TRAI might later decide such services violate the policy.

The debate over 5G slicing and net neutrality has come up in other regulatory jurisdictions. In the European Union, the Body of European Regulators for Electronic Communications (BEREC) is currently holding a public consultation on whether the EU’s net neutrality regulations already allow network slicing, and – if not – whether they should be updated to do so.

In the US, the Federal Communications Commission’s net neutrality rules were repealed in 2017 during US President Donald Trump’s first term. When the Biden administration reinstated the rules in 2024, the FCC said that 5G slicing would violate net neutrality. However, a US court struck down the reinstated rules at the start of 2025.

Will TRAI’s recommendations influence India’s spectrum auctions?

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has made a number of recommendations relating to the next auction of spectrum in India. But will they be accepted?

Earlier this week, TRAI publicised a large number of suggestions, apparently based on comments received from stakeholders during a consultation process, and its own further analysis, the most significant of which included the auctioning of the entire available spectrum in the upcoming sale – that is, spectrum in the 600MHz, 800MHz, 900MHz, 1800MHz, 2100MHz, 2300MHz, 2500MHz, 3300MHz, and 26GHz frequency bands.

That’s about 11,790MHz of spectrum, valued at about INR2.1 trillion (US$23.1 billion), more than 2022’s US$17 billion, but a lot more than the 2024 sale that raised only US$1.30 billion when Reliance Jio emerged as the sole bidder for the 700MHz spectrum.

Among its many other recommendations, TRAI suggested lower entry barriers for new entrants (including reduced net-worth requirements in some areas) and spectrum caps to safeguard competition – though this would not apply to any telecom carrier that has already acquired spectrum that exceeds the cap. 

After the 2022 auction, the 600MHz range reportedly contributes to nearly 62% of the overall spectrum availability with a reduced base price of up to 17%. TRAI suggested that while the spectrum charge on 600MHz may be levied for a period of 20 years, the validity period of the spectrum should be increased by four years to 24 years and that there should be no rollout obligations for the initial four years. Some commentators have suggested that this may have something to do with device availability.

TRAI also advocated reserving the 6GHz (upper) band for mobile telephony services and added that the available airwaves bands in the 6425-6725MHz and 7025-7125MHz should not be put up for sale until after the WRC-27, the ITU World Radiocommunication Conference, at which a number of decisions regarding spectrum usage worldwide will be made.

TRAI pointed out that a number of former Indian operators are dealing with insolvency and said that any spectrum they hold should be made available for the forthcoming spectrum auction. It also proposed a reduction of up to 10% in the spectrum cost from the auction-determined price for all licensed service areas (LSA) across frequency bands. LSAs include remote, rural or underdeveloped regions.

The bottom line, across the entire auction, is that spectrum could be close to 20% cheaper than prices recommended in 2022.

According to the Economic Times news service, the Union Minister of Communications Jyotiraditya Scindia has said that the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) would take a call on the spectrum auction following a review of the regulator’s recommendations – of which there are many more on TRAI’s website. The DoT will announce the actual dates for the live auction in the coming months.

Spectrum auctions worldwide are apparently attracting less interest recently. There has also been a perception that Indian prices have been too high in recent auctions. If TRAI’s recommendations are accepted does this mean pressure to get the spectrum sold could outweigh the – possibly unrealistic – desire to get a good price?

VMO2 lauches Starlink-backed ‘O2 Satellite’ service

Press Release

Virgin Media O2 has today switched on O2 Satellite, a new satellite-to-mobile service powered by Starlink Direct to Cell, marking a major step forward in extending mobile connectivity across the UK.

This makes Virgin Media O2 the first operator in the UK and Europe to launch satellite powered data services, enabling customers to stay connected in areas with no traditional mobile coverage, known as ‘not-spots’.

The service boosts Virgin Media O2’s UK landmass coverage from 89% to 95%, delivering a coverage uplift equivalent to an area around two thirds the size of Wales.

O2 Satellite has been designed to complement O2’s existing mobile network and customers will connect automatically when traditional cellular coverage is unavailable. This will help people stay connected when travelling or taking part in activities such as hiking, climbing, water sports and sailing, offering greater peace of mind in rural, coastal and other remote locations.

As well as extending coverage into not-spots, O2 Satellite provides more resilience and acts as a back-up, helping customers retain connectivity in the rare event of a local cellular network outage where coverage is completely unavailable.

At launch, O2 Satellite supports text messaging and data across apps like WhatsApp, Messenger, Google Maps and more, providing an additional layer of reassurance when customers move beyond terrestrial mobile networks. The service is initially available to customers with the latest Samsung smartphones*, with support for other devices, manufacturers and apps to be introduced soon.

The service is the result of a UK-first partnership with SpaceX, using Starlink’s low-Earth-orbit satellites to deliver connectivity direct to mobile devices using O2’s licensed mobile spectrum transmitted from space.

The launch of O2 Satellite follows successful internal trials, with Virgin Media O2 employees already using the technology in real-world conditions across the country.

At launch, O2 Satellite is available as a £3-per-month bolt-on and will be included at no extra cost for all Ultimate Plan customers in the near future, benefiting tens of thousands of consumers.

Lutz Schüler, CEO of Virgin Media O2, said: “This is a defining moment for UK mobile connectivity and a statement of our intent to keep innovating and ensure our customers can stay connected no matter where they are. By launching O2 Satellite, we’ve become the first operator in Europe to launch a space-based mobile data service that, overnight, has brought new mobile coverage to an area around two thirds the size of Wales for the first time.

“We already have the UK’s largest 5G+ footprint and we’re not standing still, investing heavily this year in our mobile network to give O2 customers a brilliant, reliable service that they can depend on.”

Baroness Lloyd, Minister for the Digital Economy, said: “This is a major achievement for the UK and demonstrates leadership in next-generation connectivity.  Being the first in Europe to launch direct-to-device satellite data services puts the UK firmly at the forefront of mobile innovation.  O2 Satellite is a boost for growth and connectivity and a strong signal of the UK’s leadership in the global digital economy.”

Stephanie Bednarek, VP of Starlink Commercial Sales said: “Delivering Starlink Direct to Cell in partnership with Virgin Media O2 underscores the importance of keeping people connected no matter where they are. For the first time, millions of people across the UK will have access to data, voice and video through apps, and messaging in remote areas where terrestrial coverage isn’t available.”

The switch on of O2 Satellite follows Ofcom’s recent approval of the UK’s first licence for satellite-to-smartphone services.

O2 was recently recognised as the most improved mobile network across Europe in Umlaut Connect’s Mobile Network Test, an independent and comprehensive benchmarking report. It was also awarded Best Mobile Network Coverage at the Uswitch Telecoms Awards for the second year in a row, which recognised the scale, reach and reliability of O2’s mobile network. In its full year 2025 financial results, Virgin Media O2 reported that its 5G Standalone network now reaches 87% of the UK outdoor population – the largest 5G Standalone footprint in the country.

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Putting data in action: Transforming digital shadows into digital twins

Interview

We spoke to Octave’s Director of EMIA (Utilities and Communications), Jean-Francois Allard, to discuss taking digital modelling to the next level

Telcos are some of the most data-rich organisations on the planet but using that data effectively remains a major challenge. For Jean-Francois Allard, Director of EMIA (Utilities and Communications) at Octave, a spin-off from Hexagon, digital twins – digital replicas of physical assets enabling real-time interaction – are a vital platform for leveraging that data.

“It’s about creating a continuous loop, where changes in the physical world are reflected in the digital world and vice versa,” he explained. “To say it shortly, our main goal is to put data in action.”

Allard argues it is useful to consider digital twins not as a novel system, but rather as a maturation of earlier digital models.

Previously, digital models focussed primarily on digitising physical assets into a central inventory. These models were limited by their relatively static nature, requiring significant manual oversight to generate actionable insights. As such, these models have quickly evolved into what Allard terms ‘digital shadows’, where sensors and field data provide a one-way stream of real-time information into the model.

A digital twin takes this paradigm to its logical conclusion, making the system synchronised and bidirectional, allowing it to autonomously react to incoming data in real-time.

“You can have in real time both real world and digital world that are synchronized so that fully autonomously, this is the ultimate goal,” says Allard.

While industries like nuclear power are already approaching this level of sophistication for security reasons, Allard estimates that telecom is still “5 to 10 years” away from full autonomy.

Managing the complexity of telco networks

What makes a telecoms digital twin more complex than a water or power grid? According to Allard, it is the interplay between physical infrastructure and logical services. In what he terms a “relational digital twin,” the system must track everything from the trench in the ground to the specific IPTV service running through a single strand of fibre.

“In telecom, you manage the physical aspects… but also what’s inside,” Allard explains. “You need to know this hierarchy at all times[…] so that you can manage the services, the fibre links, and fibre channels in near real-time.”

This precision understanding of huge, distributed networks and their various technical elements not only allows for more efficient automation, it also improves customer experience. By using OTDR (Optical Time Domain Reflectometer) technology integrated with a digital twin, for example, Octave can locate a network failure within 10 metres on a 100-kilometre backbone network, resulting in faster repair and less downtime.

Infusing digital twins with AI 

As the industry looks toward the next decade, AI is the clear catalyst for scaling these digital twins. However, Allard warns that the “intelligence” of the system is strictly capped by the quality of the underlying data.

“AI today is only valid if the data you are using to feed your AI is valid. Good data will provide good AI analysis. Bad data can only bring you bad answers,” he cautions.

When the data is sound, the applications can be highly effective. Allard highlights two primary use cases:

  1. Automated digitisation: Using machine learning and point cloud analysis to turn field photographs into “intelligent” data automatically.
  2. Plain language interactivity: Combining available data with generative AI allows engineers to perform complex analysis “just by talking with your own words” to the system. This is faster than performing the analysis manually and often yields more effective results.

“What if you are in the green field and you want to find a route but you have no information but pictures?” Allard asks. “AI can help you. AI can identify a route just based on the pictures. So, this is where AI can go beyond just using existing data – it can create a new path that you didn’t even didn’t think about.”

Getting the foundation right

Building an effective digital twin is a major undertaking. For Allard, the key is to build with purpose rather than chasing a “rich” but unusable model. He suggests starting with the basics, like connection points, nodes, and cabinets, rather than trying to map every inch of the network at once.

“Anticipate […] Ask what you want to do with your data,” Allard concludes. “Very often we see customers having a very, very rich model, but it’s so complex that it’s very difficult to take a benefit from it.”

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Pine Labs wins digital payments contracts from Indian petrol merchants

Global fintech platform Pine Labs has announced that it has won multiple contracts from three of the leading oil and marketing companies (OMCs) in India: Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL).

Pine Labs will be entrusted with deploying, managing, and maintaining the digital payments infrastructure at petrol pumps and merchant outlets across India.

These are described as multi-year contracts aimed at leveraging the expertise of Pine Labs in managing the payment rails for swifter, secure, seamless money movements at the point of sale.

This is not a small undertaking: it involves nearly 130,000 digital payments acceptance devices to be deployed and maintained across India.

Pine Labs will also be managing IOCL’s loyalty rewards platform called XTRAPOWER, in use by hundreds of thousands of fleet operators in India. The programme, built on robust API integrations, caters to fuel management, fleet analytics, trip management, and secure chip and PIN digital payment transactions including card, mobile and RFID payments.

B Amrish Rau, CEO, Pine Labs, explains: “By combining our tech prowess with the massive retail footprints of top OMCs in India, we are enabling a tech-first and robust payments infra and a world-class prepaid loyalty rewards ecosystem. The software-first approach of Pine Labs will ensure faster product feature rollouts, minimal on-site intervention, and a unified payments and rewards/loyalty platform for accelerated digitisation of fuel retail commerce in India.”

Pine Labs operates in India and a growing number of international markets including Malaysia, UAE, Singapore, Australia, USA, and Africa.

It’s certainly been busy in India of late. As we reported at the time, in December API-enabled technology platform Setu, owned by Pine Labs, announced the launch of what it calls India’s first agentic bill-payments experience.

In February meanwhile, Pine Labs announced a collaboration with OpenAI to engineer what it called the era of agentic commerce in India. And in late January one of Sri Lanka’s largest listed entities, the Pan Asia Banking Corporation (PABC), and Pine Labs announced a partnership that will see the Pine Labs implementing an end-to-end card management platform for the bank.