Research group Omdia says the Africa smartphone market is expected to decline 26% in 2026 following its first contraction in three years, blaming rising device prices for a fall in shipments of about 7%.

The company’s research highlights the sub-US$100 segment, which has long served as the entry point to digital connectivity for Africa’s emerging middle class. Shipments in the segment fell 34% year on year, representing a decline of nearly three million units, as rising memory costs and the AI-driven shifting supply chain placed further pressure on entry-level smartphone availability and pricing. Essentially, it seems vendors can no longer profitably manufacture US$75 smartphones, and consumers must pay more.

Manish Pravinkumar, Principal Analyst at Omdia, puts it starkly, saying: “Average selling prices increased by US$41 year on year to US$202, reversing the aggressive price reduction seen in 2Q25.”

Of the big markets, Nigeria declined 11%, Egypt contracted 26%  and Kenya fell 15%. This isn’t continent-wide however. South Africa grew 17% year on year, supported by stronger consumer purchasing power and the market’s continued transition to 5G devices.

Of the main device-making players, market leader Transsion (whose brands include TECNO, Infinix, and iTel) saw shipments fall 14% proably due to its strong presence in the sub-US$100 segment. Samsung performed strongly amid the  shift towards higher price bands, growing shipments 15%, supported by strategic inventory management that allowed it to maintain multi-month stock buffers for key volume.

Honor continued its growth trajectory for a second consecutive quarter, supported by its focus on the more resilient $300-plus mid-to-high-end segment and a focus on markets such as South Africa, which accounts for roughly 60% of its regional volumes.

Meanwhile, Xiaomi (down 30%) and Oppo (down 25%) recorded shipment declines as both vendors prioritised profitability and took what Omdia describes as a more disciplined approach to the highly price-sensitive entry-level segment amid rising component costs. 

So what happens now?  Pravinkumar says: “Device financing will become an increasingly important part of vendors’ affordability strategies, particularly as higher device prices make upfront costs harder for consumers to absorb. » He adds: « As cost and currency pressures persist, the next phase of competition will depend on how effectively vendors can balance affordability, volume and profitability.”